The Design of Open Engineering Systems Lab

University at Buffalo - The State University of New York

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Coupled Systems Design in Probabilitic Environments

Research Area: Research Publication Year: 2002
Type of Publication: Technical Report
Authors: Halecki, Tom; Lewis, Kemper
In traditional robust design techniques, one is concerned with minimizing the variation in the system output due to uncertainty or variation in external conditions without eliminating the source of the variation or uncertainty. Recent applications of robust design have dealt with modeling the interfaces between designers in highly coupled systems where the uncertainty is due to the lack of knowledge of non-local design decisions. In this paper, we extend robust design principles into probabilistic design problems. Non-local information is modeled as uncertainty in a probabilistic sense and decisions are made using simulation and optimization. The sensitivity of these probabilistic decisions to the distribution of decisions of other designers is also modeled and approximated. Validation is offered in the form of a comparison with probabilistic theory prediction using the design of a pressure vessel
Symposium on Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization
Full text: AIAA20025586.pdf